Budget 08 - Who is the winner?

There has been a large number of views on the Budget 08. Most of the views from the Inc and the common people has nothing great to worry, as this is a election year budget. The clear winner for this year's budget is going to be the Indian middle income class people and the farmers who are in so-called losses. There are so many resons for the middle income people to feel relaxed. After all they are the boosters of the consumer spending in the economy. The income tax slabs modifications, particularly for those who are in 3-5 lakhs is going to help them to spend 3-4k per months thus increasing their spending. Also some reductions in taxes for small cars is also going to help them a lot. And with respect to farmers, the FM clearly made a googly thus making this budget a 'successful' 'populist' budget.

Reliance Power - Whose failure

It was never thought that a big IPO like Reliance Power will fail in a bullish market like India. But nature and markets are very clever and unbeatable. To some extent markets always master humans. Yes, everything came to light after 3rd week of January. Even Anil Ambani would not have thought that Reliance Power IPO will be a big failure in markets.

Reliance Power came for subscription when Indian markets are at their peak. Every normal Indian who do not venture into stocks was thinking of that they didnt utilise the opportunities of Indian stock market boom. Then came the Reliance Power, the mother of all Indian IPOs so far. The strange thing was that every analyst is bullish of this IPO, though the company did not have any revenue so far. Even the pessimisic analysts were saying that one can invest even though fundamentals are weak.

The greed to gain money in a short span of time makes the retail investors to subscribe for Reliance Power IPO. It was heard that some 2 lakh DeMat applications were pending with NSDL in those 2 weeks. Many HNIs were hedging their money for the IPO.

But came the crash which mada almost everyone poorer than ever. Suddenly all the IPOs seems to be bad. Even 3 IPOs were withdrawn last week. Reliance ower made its debut with a huge loss to all types of investos... Retail, QIBs and HNIs. Retail investors are a bit ok because only 17 (max) were allotted to them. The utmost lesson from this... Think twice before making an investment even in an IPO. Go for companies with a good revenue book, not a company only with good speculation of revenue.

Panic Selling & the Retail Investors... No end in sight!!!

As I told in the last article, it is the retail investors who are going to be affected the most in a panic selling and a market crash. It became true the next 2 days itself after my article. I am not saying that I am always cent percent in the predictions and analysis. It is really a shock across the world particularly for the optimists of the street.

Markets across the world and particularly Indian bourses have come off the lows of Jan 22 - 23, but still clearly pessimism rules the world now. It is clearly evident from the fact that market has not seen a consistent rally, but swinging between the lows and highs daily. Pessimist analysts are very confident that the worst is not yet over. They might also be true as the recent trends are supporting them.

Indian market supposedly is believed to be in an upside movement atleast till Budget'08. The trend after that clearly is not known even to the king makers and badshahs of the street. The most affected lot in the current turmoil - retail investors, some of those supposedly lose over 5 lakhs in those 2 days are very well expceting a good run to cover up the losses. But it is imminent that they need to wait for some more years, yes years, to cover up those losses in those 2 days.

Adding to the Indian secondary markets' woes is the uncertainty in the primary markets. Last week has seen the withdrawal of 2 major IPOs, Emaar MGF and Wockhardt Hospitals, even after the reduction in price band and the extension period of the issue. This adds to the uncertainty in the minds of those who already are very much upset.

Are we really going towards a recession. With respect to Indian economy, the answer may be a clear no for the near term. But some of the recent estimates show that the Indian GDP is slowing down though not to worrying levels. It is evident from the past that a recession in US will have impact on India after some weeks. The gap might well have reduced now, but not the impact. Sub prime and credit crunch in the US will show see their real face during April-May and well India may also follow the path and we would well be in our 2 - 3 year lows during that time.

As most of the experts say, this recession wont extend beyond a period of at the most nine months, the worrying fact is to find out its starting point and its peak.

Already some of the Indian hotspot cities including Bangalore are said to be stagnant and dull in property prices. Also Q3 numbers of some of the believed-to-be-good companies have shown a slowdown in earnings.

All together, consensus are strong for hard times ahead to crack, particularly for already butchered retail investors. Yes... they have to fish in a bumpy market atleast for the next 2 quarters.

Panic Selling & the Retail Investors

There seems to be a panic selling in the world markets for the past 10 days. This was seen in Indian bourses this week, particularly on Friday (18th Jan). Sensex and Nifty down by more than 8% for the week.

Most of the momentum stocks were down by 5 - 20% on Friday alone leaving the retail investors bleeding in the bourses. The Indian markets were very positive in the New Year week, where all the world markets were reeling under pressure, because of the possibility of recession in US. Now it is almost confirmed that no country can escape from a slowdown in their economy if US goes into a recession.

People are telling a number of reasons for the downfall of India bourses for this week. One such reason is the 2 mega IPOs opened this week. One is Future Capital which closed on Wednesday and the other Reliance Power which closed on Friday. Remember Reliance Power is the biggest IPO in India so far which raises money more than 3 billion $. But retail investors would have squared off the position early this week to be ready with the money for the IPOs. The real reason behind the Friday crash is the FII selling witnessed. There is a real trouble now of US recession and the world slowing down. So investors are booking the profit at the high levels of Sensex and Nifty. Those who are affected more are clearly the retail investors who came into the markets when the markets boomed during Nov - Dec 2007. They will be in real trouble as most of the stocks plunged this week. Some stocks are in their 3 months low and some are even in theri 52 week low. Its the retail investors who donno what to do in such a situation where the momentum stocks plunged in a range of 5 - 20% which is a heart break for small investors. It is these times which make small investors to burn their fingers and make a bad image about the markets a whole among the retail investors. Its better be out of the markets next week - which will give a clear picture for the weeks to come till budget. Remember even the good results from IT stocks didn't help the IT stocks to stop their fall to their new 52 week lows. Clearly the big thing to stop and watch is the Budget - 2008.

It is now obvious that retail investors will try to involve in a panic selling next week wherein there is a chance for a bottom fsihing by the operators and FIIs. So the real game begins next week and there is a chance for rise in Indian markets on the run up to the Budget which is due on Feb end. So its a risky bet for retail investors now.

Wipro bidding for Capgemini

According to the Hindustan Times, Wipro is going to put a bid for Capgemini, a leader in consulting biz by Jan end. This was long rumored. There also was a rumor of Infy biddng for the same circled in the markets some time ago. The thing to note is Capgemini is bigger that Wipro. As a result of this, both Wipro and Capgemini shares rose in their respective countries.

Yes, Uncertainty is the buzzword now.

Uncertainty is the answer

There is a famous say in the market - "Do not time the market". Markets across the world prove the same in some way now a days.

It is always said that strong funadamentals will help an investor in the long term. But the real situation across the world is very much different. The markets have become so complex that it is now tough even for an experienced analyst to realise the fututre movements.

Markets are reacting strongly to news'. The worrying factor is that the news coming out daily are almost contradicting. The financial markets in the west are facing a credit crunch and are in serious sub-prmie woes. It is expected that US will fall into a recession. For the past 3 - 4 months, the expectation of a US recession has found a strong backing with the economists. At times, the economic data and the financial results from technology firms defy the specualtion of a recession. It is true that a recession will take some time to affect the technology sector. But at the same time, recession can also boost the technology sector to increase the margin in some sectors.

Again this philosphy is true for all the sectors including the financial sector. Another worry is the housing slumpdoewn in US. There is a worry across the world, among the people of business fraternity - 2008 will see a US recession and so a slowdown in the world economy. This is evident from the performance of world markets and their choppiness for the past few weeks. But the policy makers in the west are sure that recession can be contained in some way or other like cutting down interest rates and pumping money into markets. Meanwhile, the developing economies or to be precise, the asian economies and the people felt they are insulated from a meltdown in the west.

Keep into account all these things and if analysed more, the uncertainity increases. Yes, Uncertainty is the buzzword now.